Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x3247…9488 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+6%) realized +$137 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$99
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$288
sports 25% −$203
crypto 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +11.7% +1.1% 51% 49% -2.9%
≤30d 71 +4.3% -5.6% 49% 48% -4.5%
≤90d 71 +4.3% -5.6% 49% 48% -4.5%
all 71 +4.3% -5.6% 49% 48% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 48% -4.5%
10% -14.7% 41% -13.7%
15% -22.9% 38% -22.0%
20% -30.5% 30% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions11
Markets (closed)71 / 82
History coverage9d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$32 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$9 -88%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $29 +$39 +134%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $22 −$18 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$20 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $38 +$18 +48%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 +$46 +650%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 +$21 +57%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $18 +$13 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$19 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 +$23 +62%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 +$42 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$44 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 +$18 +48%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$21 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$27 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 +$26 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 +$23 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -87%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 +$35 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 +$21 +57%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $38 +$15 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $23 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $36 26h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 47h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $29 47h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $37 47h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.45 · official $298.46 (match) · 139 history records