Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x3247…16ab crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$724 (-8%) realized −$883 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$142
14 days+$288
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$939
other 26% +$576
sports 14% −$529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.0% +2.3% 67% 67% +7.6%
≤30d 13 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 54% -26.5%
≤90d 43 -50.5% -55.2% 28% 23% -57.4%
all 67 -23.8% -31.1% 43% 39% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 39% -22.0%
10% -37.7% 33% -29.5%
15% -43.7% 27% -36.3%
20% -49.2% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$86 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,249
Realized−$883
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)67 / 75
History coverage154d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $250 $272 +$22 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $150 $263 +$113 (+75%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $161 $152 −$9 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$181 +177%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $139 −$137 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $202 +$137 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +18%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $183 +$145 +79%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $71 +$110 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $210 −$100 -48%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $363 −$358 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $103 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 15 $26 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 14 $105 +$74 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 14 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 09 $22 +$18 +80%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 07 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Tainy perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 07 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 07 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Apr 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 07 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 07 $287 −$287 -100%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 07 $354 −$354 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $74 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 14 $200 +$87 +43%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 14 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 14 $291 +$178 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 BUY 30¢ $75 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $150 16h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $133 16h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $139 24h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 24h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $164 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $46 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 7d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $329 7d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $183 18d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 18d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 39¢ $71 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $178 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $46 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $254 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,248.85 · official $1,322.32 · 197 history records