Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x323f…a511 other 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$251 (-5%) realized −$99 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%65W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$2,078
sports 7% −$33
world 4% +$21
crypto 1% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -26.0% -33.1% 34% 31% -13.1%
≤30d 34 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 29% -16.6%
≤90d 122 +50.6% +36.2% 39% 34% -57.1%
all 180 +28.1% +15.9% 36% 32% -55.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.9% 32% -55.5%
10% +4.8% 29% -59.7%
15% -5.3% 26% -63.6%
20% -14.6% 22% -67.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$622
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses65 / 115
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 186
History coverage109d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $620 $471 −$149 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 81¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $8 −$6 -75%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -92%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $10 −$2 -19%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $91 +$108 +118%
Luka Modrić: 2+ shots Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$12 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $14 +$7 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$17 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $37 −$24 -64%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $34 −$14 -41%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 +$11 +148%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $6 +$2 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $4 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Hradec Králové vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $4 +$1 +27%
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$4 +376%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $4 +$6 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 15¢ $2 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $8 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $19 7h
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $9 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $19 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $18 7h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $10 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $41 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 34h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $621.86 · official $621.69 (match) · 991 history records