Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x323d…f52c crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-11%) realized −$3 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$21
world 24% −$9
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 52% +16.4%
≤30d 21 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 52% +16.4%
≤90d 21 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 52% +16.4%
all 21 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 52% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 52% +16.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 48% +5.2%
15% -28.2% 33% -4.9%
20% -35.3% 29% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions18
Markets (closed)21 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 6¢ 3¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$15 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.44 · official $24.72 · 76 history records