Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x323a…876f sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66,480 (-67%) realized −$66,439 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,939per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$290est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,134
7 days−$537
14 days−$537
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$26,481
finance 42% −$39,560
sports 11% +$498
other 4% −$1,076
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 27% 27% -13.1%
≤30d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 27% 27% -13.1%
≤90d 33 -17.0% -24.9% 24% 24% -70.8%
all 33 -17.0% -24.9% 24% 24% -70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 24% -70.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 24% -73.6%
15% -38.6% 21% -76.1%
20% -44.7% 15% -78.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$747) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +28% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,096 vs −$3,014 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$659
Realized−$66,439
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$290
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2,939
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $700 $659 −$41 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $716 −$64 -9%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $700 −$15 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $730 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $715 −$700 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $717 −$700 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $716 −$700 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $706 +$266 +38%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $698 −$698 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $919 −$900 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $920 −$900 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $705 −$700 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$92 +180%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $921 −$900 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,683 −$981 -58%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $716 +$2,465 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $715 +$1,785 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $747 +$2,617 +350%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 11 $40,347 −$40,317 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $11,022 −$7,715 -70%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $30,997 −$17,552 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Mar 31 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $499 +$1,420 +285%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $500 −$156 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $652 58m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $685 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $700 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 18h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $716 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $715 19h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $717 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $614 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $680 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $62 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $288 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $170 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 39h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.97 · official $658.97 (match) · 369 history records