Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3238…6471 sports 1248 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$383 (+3%) realized +$400 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%771W / 508L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$179
14 days−$466
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$187
other 15% −$91
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$4
world 0% −$10
tech 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -9.9% -18.5% 55% 55% -15.1%
≤30d 638 +0.6% -9.0% 61% 61% -11.5%
≤90d 1279 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 60% -9.4%
all 1279 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 60% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 60% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 59% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 48% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 34% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$400
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses771 / 508
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1279 / 1248
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 50¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 50¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 63¢ 94¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+48%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 38¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 18¢ $27 $10 −$17 (-62%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 82¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals No 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ottawa Redblacks vs. Montreal Alouettes: O/U 55.5 Over 53¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$6 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$3 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$5 -200%
Game Handicap: OZO (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 29 $3 −$7 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $3 −$2 -81%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 28 $7 +$6 +83%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 +$8 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$5 +57%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $3 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $0 8m
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $8 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $3 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 4¢ $1 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 54¢ $7 7h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $10 7h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $10 8h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 63¢ $10 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $3 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 23h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 23h
Ottawa Redblacks vs. Montreal Alouettes: O/U 55.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 24h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $8 25h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $7 26h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Cincinnati Reds 32¢ $2 26h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $10 26h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $10 29h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 64¢ $10 29h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 29h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $3 31h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $9 32h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $10 32h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $9 32h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 5¢ $0 33h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 64¢ $4 33h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 53¢ $2 34h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $1 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.02 · official $131.67 (match) · 3500 history records