Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3237…5658 weather 633 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,926 (-4%) realized −$1,926 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate54%336W / 291L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$361est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$8
14 days+$12
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$325
weather 23% −$36
other 19% −$671
politics 17% −$230
world 8% −$105
economics 3% −$32
finance 1% −$220
tech 1% −$39
crypto 1% −$301
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 313 -2.4% -11.7% 96% 1% -10.3%
≤90d 627 -5.3% -14.4% 54% 1% -13.3%
all 627 -5.3% -14.4% 54% 1% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 1% -13.3%
10% -22.6% 1% -21.6%
15% -30.0% 1% -29.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$1,926
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses336 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$361
Open positions6
Markets (closed)627 / 633
History coverage90d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$16 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $21 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $29 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 3m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 7m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 16m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 49¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 49¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 49¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $35 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $22 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 30h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $44 31h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.75 · official $299.75 (match) · 1956 history records