Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3234…86d6 crypto 1397 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%415W / 902L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day77.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$48
14 days−$63
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -24.0% -31.3% 25% 22% -21.4%
≤30d 820 -18.6% -26.4% 30% 26% -16.1%
≤90d 1317 -23.8% -31.1% 32% 27% -18.2%
all 1317 -23.8% -31.1% 32% 27% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 27% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 24% -26.0%
15% -43.7% 21% -33.1%
20% -49.2% 17% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses415 / 902
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1317 / 1397
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day77.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1317 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records