Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3231…07c2 crypto 249 markets active 23h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$84 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate47%114W / 129L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$113
14 days−$154
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% +$481
crypto 25% −$384
sports 13% −$86
other 12% +$17
politics 10% −$19
world 7% +$8
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -44.3% -49.6% 23% 13% -49.9%
≤30d 170 -17.8% -25.6% 46% 23% -12.7%
≤90d 243 -14.6% -22.7% 47% 22% -13.7%
all 243 -14.6% -22.7% 47% 22% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 22% -13.7%
10% -30.1% 15% -22.0%
15% -36.8% 9% -29.5%
20% -43.0% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses114 / 129
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)243 / 249
History coverage65d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ariana Grande feature Taylor Swift on Petal? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+78%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 66¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+137%)
Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 86¢ 67¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 82¢ 5¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $2 −$1 -76%
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on Jun Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Haiti elections delayed again? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -75%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 11 $0 +$1 +353%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
CA Nacional Potosí vs. CD Real Tomayapo: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 −$3 -89%
CDT RealOruro vs. GV CD San José: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 −$3 -89%
Bamin Real Potosí vs. GV CD San José: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 −$4 -89%
Spread: CA Nacional Potosí (-2.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $12 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $0 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $0 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.50 · official $11.50 (match) · 1234 history records