Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x3230…6a0a
crypto · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$232 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$235 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage25d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$215
14 days−$215
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Elena Rybakina 58¢ 72¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +149%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $56 −$37 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$10 +61%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $11 +$11 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$11 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +102%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $30 −$26 -86%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $79 −$3 -4%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $10 +$7 +68%
Set Handicap: Bronzetti (-1.5) vs Grabher (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$10 +68%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $240 −$208 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska May 25 $59 −$27 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs May 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$7 +127%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 24 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +48%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $17 +$23 +137%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $34 −$6 -19%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% −$68
politics 31% −$208
crypto 19% +$53
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 58¢ $10 42m
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 67¢ $17 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 12¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 47¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 24¢ $16 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 64¢ $32 3h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 53¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 99¢ $22 4h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 50¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 6h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 8¢ $4 6h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 57¢ $30 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 41¢ $30 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $31 17h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 60¢ $31 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 52% -44.1%
≤30d 40 +12.5% +1.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
≤90d 40 +12.5% +1.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
all 40 +12.5% +1.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 55% -37.0%
10% -7.9% 52% -43.0%
15% -16.8% 52% -48.5%
20% -25.0% 50% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.33 · official $12.59 (match) · 102 history records