Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x322f…ba1f other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,646 (+3%) realized +$2,379 · open −$733
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,010per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$5,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$222
14 days−$271
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$768
sports 4% −$57
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.4% -30.7% 0% 0% -25.3%
≤30d 7 -20.4% -28.0% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤90d 7 -20.4% -28.0% 0% 0% -16.5%
all 10 -13.9% -22.1% 10% 10% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 10% -11.4%
10% -29.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -36.3% 0% -27.6%
20% -42.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$31 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$5,584
Realized+$2,379
Unrealized−$733
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage271d
Avg bet$4,010
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,117 $4,407 −$710 (-14%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $700 $682 −$18 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$13 -12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$17 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $301 −$1 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 −$20 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $168 −$164 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,244 −$49 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $115 −$1 -1%
Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? Jan 26 $900 +$186 +21%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 06 $45 −$7 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $307 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $90 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $94 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $86 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $300 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,105 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $868 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $486 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,418 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $608 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $15 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $41 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,651 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $762 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,854 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $780 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,584.37 · official $5,584.36 (match) · 112 history records