Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x322e…a2ce other 508 markets active 2h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$814 (+2%) realized +$912 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%237W / 267L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$139
14 days+$139
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$438
sports 24% +$102
weather 4% −$74
world 3% +$40
finance 0% +$76
crypto 0% +$71
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 55% -4.4%
≤30d 51 -2.9% -12.2% 53% 49% -10.8%
≤90d 360 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 28% -43.3%
all 504 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 44% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 44% -7.9%
10% -16.4% 43% -16.7%
15% -24.4% 41% -24.7%
20% -31.8% 40% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$67 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$912
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses237 / 267
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)504 / 508
History coverage348d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $101 $74 −$27 (-27%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? No 81¢ 66¢ $81 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 43¢ 49¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+14%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 20¢ $100 $37 −$63 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$82 +82%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$83 -82%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$82 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$110 +110%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$93 +92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $246 +$164 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $100 +$85 +85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$71 +71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$117 +118%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$109 +108%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 +$242 +240%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
United States vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $104 +$96 +92%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score May 31 $104 −$103 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $101 +$109 +108%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $201 −$201 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $146 +$40 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $89 −$1 -1%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 24 $200 +$166 +83%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $122 −$103 -84%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $100 −$31 -31%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $103 −$101 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $473 +$27 +6%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $103 −$101 -98%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $51 +$41 +80%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $56 +$44 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 21 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $101 +$59 +59%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $101 +$64 +64%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $74 +$26 +35%
Spread: Knicks (-17.5) May 20 $81 +$19 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $99 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $95 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $100 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $98 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $100 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $211 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $37 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $0 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $246 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $32 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $47 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $21 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $12 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $88 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.36 · official $229.34 · 1855 history records