Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x322d…61f5 crypto 15 markets active 7h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,975 (-60%) realized −$1,975 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$1,020
sports 36% −$1,180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -32.4% -38.9% 20% 20% -71.4%
≤30d 15 -23.0% -30.3% 20% 20% -70.2%
≤90d 15 -23.0% -30.3% 20% 20% -70.2%
all 15 -23.0% -30.3% 20% 20% -70.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 20% -70.2%
10% -37.0% 20% -73.1%
15% -43.1% 20% -75.7%
20% -48.6% 20% -78.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$236 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,975
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $322 −$300 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $99 +$226 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $185 −$173 -93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $267 −$251 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $130 +$203 +156%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $259 −$259 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 25 $658 −$658 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $163 −$34 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$208 +380%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $322 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $99 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $54 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $194 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $130 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $129 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $163 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $164 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $21 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 0¢ $17 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $637 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $267 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $271 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $130 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $108 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $55 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $164 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $76 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $244 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $161 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records