Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x322d…37fe politics 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,270 (-0%) realized −$1,272 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,640per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days+$29
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$136
other 38% −$202
sports 14% −$965
culture 2% −$7
economics 2% −$1
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 43 +10.8% +0.3% 16% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 130 -5.0% -14.0% 12% 8% -10.3%
all 155 +0.4% -9.2% 19% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 12% -10.0%
10% -17.9% 12% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 10% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,606) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$21 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$1,272
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,640
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $262 $264 +$3 (+1%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,918 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,665 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $2,191 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,953 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,098 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,007 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $49 +$68 +140%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,038 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $65 +$33 +50%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,781 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $540 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $559 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,080 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,806 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,084 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,067 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,437 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $2,606 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $2,794 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $48 +$55 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $54 +$93 +172%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,547 −$5 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $49 +$46 +93%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,806 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,890 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $7,225 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $3,183 −$5 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $3,725 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 41h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 43h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,474 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,476 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,531 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,531 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,338 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,531 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,533 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,455 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,457 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,345 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,347 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,569 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,571 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $262 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,349 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,521 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $653 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,646 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.71 · official $469.71 (match) · 537 history records