Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x321a…8712 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 31% +$16
politics 6% +$1
sports 3% −$2
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 19 -0.0% -9.6% 42% 0% -9.3%
all 56 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 5% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 5% -8.0%
10% -16.2% 4% -16.8%
15% -24.3% 4% -24.8%
20% -31.7% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage457d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $13 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $18 −$2 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $3 $0 +5%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $9 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 18 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $6 +$11 +195%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 16 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$4 +51%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $37 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $36 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $36 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $6 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 9¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.80 (match) · 170 history records