Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3216…c095 crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 508d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,625 (-6%) realized −$1,625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%48W / 86L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$45
14 days+$108
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,137
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.4% -24.4% 25% 0% -25.2%
≤30d 18 +8.2% -2.1% 39% 33% -7.6%
≤90d 86 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 28% -17.6%
all 134 -3.1% -12.3% 36% 27% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 27% -17.1%
10% -20.7% 20% -25.0%
15% -28.4% 18% -32.3%
20% -35.4% 16% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$77 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses48 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage508d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $63 −$24 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$22 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $63 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$80 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $60 +$40 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $61 −$19 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $205 +$106 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $59 −$55 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $566 −$253 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $68 +$246 +360%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $56 −$36 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 21 $26 −$2 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $66 −$19 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19? May 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 17? May 17 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18? May 17 $129 −$68 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 17 $135 −$96 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 15 $1 +$2 +318%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 13 $210 −$71 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1AM ET May 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 10 $26 +$12 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 08 $88 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? May 08 $161 −$160 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $212 +$148 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 07 $154 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $98 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 06 $56 −$20 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 5? May 06 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? May 06 $201 −$104 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? May 05 $46 −$8 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $96 +$102 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $240 −$40 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3? May 02 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? May 02 $142 −$80 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 01 $88 −$8 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29? Apr 28 $380 −$226 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $460 −$93 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $115 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 24 $119 +$59 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $228 +$46 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23? Apr 22 $232 −$48 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 4¢ $39 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $46 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $46 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL No 14¢ $66 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 12¢ $63 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? SELL No 24¢ $25 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 19¢ $22 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 31¢ $112 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 27¢ $102 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 28¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 25¢ $0 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 25¢ $58 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 25¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? SELL No 5¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1038 history records