Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3213…dd1f other 684 markets active 2h ago coverage 518d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 517d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,215 (-3%) realized −$1,217 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate67%457W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$37
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$215
crypto 34% −$1,401
sports 2% +$180
politics 0% −$8
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -35.7% -41.9% 46% 15% -26.1%
≤90d 96 -7.7% -16.5% 76% 26% -13.0%
all 686 -6.0% -14.9% 67% 32% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 32% -12.2%
10% -23.1% 16% -20.6%
15% -30.5% 11% -28.3%
20% -37.3% 7% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$1,217
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses457 / 229
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)686 / 684
History coverage518d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $59 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $45 −$23 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $35 −$11 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 28 $48 −$11 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 20 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $33 −$21 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $96 −$14 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $19 +$6 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $55 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $169 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $113 +$8 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $96 +$3 +4%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $95 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $44 −$44 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 11d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $21 27d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $23 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 27d
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL No 76¢ $37 27d
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $48 31d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $23 31d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 31d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 31d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 31d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 31d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 34d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $81 34d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $14 34d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 35d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 35d
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 37d
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY No 90¢ $23 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.85 · official $145.85 (match) · 3500 history records