Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3211…49e2 sports 341 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,370 (-23%) realized −$1,338 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate16%56W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,310
other 22% +$3
economics 4% −$19
crypto 2% −$74
politics 2% +$5
culture 2% −$18
weather 0% −$7
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 244 -89.5% -90.5% 3% 2% -65.8%
all 340 -30.6% -37.2% 16% 15% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 15% -30.9%
10% -43.2% 14% -37.5%
15% -48.7% 14% -43.6%
20% -53.7% 13% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$14 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$1,338
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses56 / 284
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)340 / 341
History coverage305d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $113 $82 −$32 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $118 −$115 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $112 −$109 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 16 $72 −$71 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 16 $83 −$11 -13%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $51 +$243 +473%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 11 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $117 +$485 +414%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $118 −$115 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 18 $107 −$107 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 18 $433 −$426 -98%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-05? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 +$12 +40%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 +$27 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Apr 05 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $125 +$168 +134%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma Apr 05 $113 −$113 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweig Mar 21 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco (Heavyweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus vs. Inter end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Groningen vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-20? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2025-09-17? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-25? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Fortuna Sittard end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 18 than day before? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Rostov win on 2025-09-27? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Volendam vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estoril Praia vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Mar 20 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-09-27? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Rhode Island vs. Western Michigan Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
South Florida vs. Miami Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dolphins vs. Bills Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-27? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Mississippi State vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Pachuca vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Buffalo vs. Kent State Mar 20 $11 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $65 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $118 2d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $112 18d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 47¢ $72 32d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 32d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 34d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 34d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 34d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 36d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 36d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 36d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11? SELL Yes 77¢ $294 36d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 36d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $117 40d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 29¢ $53 59d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 29¢ $30 59d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 29¢ $35 59d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 49¢ $7 66d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Curtis Blaydes 8¢ $7 66d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 50¢ $50 66d
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Patricio Pitbull 30¢ $51 66d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 53¢ $232 67d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 56¢ $51 69d
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Patricio Pitbull 29¢ $50 69d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $100 69d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 56¢ $100 69d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.56 · official $81.56 (match) · 917 history records