Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3211…bcf7 other 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+3%) realized +$236 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%77W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days−$281
14 days−$235
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$700
sports 33% −$543
world 4% +$6
crypto 2% −$8
finance 1% +$43
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 42% -20.1%
≤30d 57 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 46% -13.2%
≤90d 95 +7.6% -2.6% 57% 54% -6.4%
all 129 +5.4% -4.6% 60% 49% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 49% -6.6%
10% -13.8% 34% -15.6%
15% -22.1% 24% -23.7%
20% -29.7% 16% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized+$236
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses77 / 52
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions38
Markets (closed)129 / 167
History coverage219d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $64 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? No 92¢ 91¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? No 91¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? No 91¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? No 88¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? No 86¢ 85¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 30¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? No 90¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? No 84¢ 84¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? No 65¢ 64¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 60¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $68 +$32 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $63 +$37 +60%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 +$66 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 +$61 +156%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $62 +$38 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $58 +$42 +72%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 +$26 +35%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 +$57 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$60 +144%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 +$81 +414%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 −$40 -40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $45 −$3 -8%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $64 −$63 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $57 −$56 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $169 +$31 +18%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $42 +$58 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $53 −$53 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $39 −$38 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $45 −$44 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 10 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $126 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $169 −$2 -1%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $81 +$6 +7%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $167 +$33 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 +$89 +785%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 92¢ $38 26m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $13 26m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 27m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $11 27m
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $14 28m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $5 28m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 86¢ $24 32m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 51¢ $14 33m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $15 34m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 85¢ $11 35m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $13 36m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $5 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 37m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $15 38m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 86¢ $35 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 41m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $6 41m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $9 42m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 86¢ $35 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $9 44m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $10 45m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 89¢ $37 48m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $12 53m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 54m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $8 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $13 55m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 55m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.62 · official $868.62 (match) · 393 history records