Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
32 0x3211…b46d other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$310 (+22%) realized +$313 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$161
sports 38% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +37.7% +24.6% 61% 61% +16.5%
≤30d 23 +37.7% +24.6% 61% 61% +16.5%
≤90d 23 +37.7% +24.6% 61% 61% +16.5%
all 23 +37.7% +24.6% 61% 61% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.6% 61% +16.5%
10% +12.7% 61% +5.3%
15% +1.8% 57% -4.8%
20% -8.2% 48% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +103% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$39 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$313
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 76¢ 74¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 −$62 -77%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$36 -72%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$112 +365%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$172 +559%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $137 +$108 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$24 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$24 -48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 13¢ $14 6h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $51 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 78¢ $50 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $53 27h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $41 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $66 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 35h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $81 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar $0 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 25¢ $20 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.50 · official $216.50 (match) · 53 history records