Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x320f…fea5 crypto 90 markets active 1d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$28
14 days−$129
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 44% -16.9%
≤30d 90 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 90 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -14.6%
all 90 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 47% -14.6%
10% -22.6% 47% -22.7%
15% -30.1% 47% -30.2%
20% -36.9% 47% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage26d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records