trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -49.9% | -54.7% | 33% | 0% | -31.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -21.7% | -29.2% | 54% | 8% | -20.9% |
| all | 16 | -17.6% | -25.5% | 62% | 6% | -20.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.5% | 6% | -20.1% |
| 10% | -32.6% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 15% | -39.1% | 0% | -34.7% |
| 20% | -45.1% | 0% | -41.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? | Jun 05 | $13 | −$13 | -99% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? | Jun 05 | $7 | −$7 | -96% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? | Jun 05 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 05 | $23 | $0 | -2% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | May 22 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | May 19 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | May 17 | $23 | −$1 | -6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 15 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 30? | May 13 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Brazil join the Board of Peace? | Apr 29 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Apr 29 | $3 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? | Apr 29 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Super Bowl national anthem last less than 80 seconds? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 06 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? | Feb 06 | $8 | $0 | +0% |