Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x320e…9971 sports 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%132W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day75.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$5
other 23% −$20
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 46% -12.1%
≤30d 241 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 46% -12.1%
≤90d 241 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 46% -12.1%
all 241 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 46% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 46% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 38% -20.5%
15% -26.4% 33% -28.2%
20% -33.6% 26% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses132 / 109
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions22
Markets (closed)241 / 263
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day75.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Colombia 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 48¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $2 +$1 +61%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $2 +$9 +505%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +64%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $12 −$3 -25%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$4 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +150%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +35%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $2 1h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $1 4h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 4h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 40¢ $2 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $2 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 7h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 61¢ $2 7h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $1 7h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 16¢ $2 9h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 42¢ $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $1 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 17h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $2 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 17h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 38¢ $1 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $2 18h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $2 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $2 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 713 history records