Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x320b…1727 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$887 (-32%) realized −$887 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$770
sports 48% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 58% 33% -38.3%
≤30d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 58% 33% -38.3%
≤90d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 58% 33% -38.3%
all 12 -20.2% -27.8% 58% 33% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 33% -38.3%
10% -34.7% 17% -44.2%
15% -41.0% 17% -49.6%
20% -46.8% 0% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$226 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$25 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $684 −$505 -74%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $96 +$9 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $404 +$175 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $293 −$291 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $300 −$8 -2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $326 −$326 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $177 14m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $179 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $684 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $579 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $96 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $404 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $293 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $293 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $300 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 93¢ $326 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) SELL Czechia 100¢ $315 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Czechia 95¢ $300 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 5d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Mexico 100¢ $100 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records