Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x320b…6057 sports 457 markets active 3d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,113 (-13%) realized −$1,113 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%176W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$82
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$827
crypto 18% −$45
other 11% −$355
politics 1% +$49
world 0% −$22
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -22.2% -29.6% 29% 29% -17.3%
≤30d 113 -2.9% -12.2% 33% 33% -26.4%
≤90d 454 -14.3% -22.5% 39% 33% -21.9%
all 457 -14.6% -22.7% 39% 33% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 33% -21.9%
10% -30.1% 32% -29.4%
15% -36.8% 31% -36.2%
20% -43.0% 28% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses176 / 281
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)457 / 457
History coverage93d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 457 Trades
no open positions (254 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $125 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$65 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$40 +99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 13 $41 +$113 +277%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $14 +$26 +185%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +216%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $38 +$38 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$62 +202%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$43 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 −$13 -50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $40 +$61 +152%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $15 +$35 +238%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 07 $124 −$122 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 07 $39 +$86 +218%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 06 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 06 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $10 +$12 +116%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $19 +$16 +86%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $61 −$59 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 05 $28 +$32 +112%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 May 31 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $125 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $116 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $51 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 16¢ $21 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $31 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $81 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 49¢ $41 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $8 4d
Qatar leading at halftime? SELL Yes $8 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 44¢ $9 4d
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY Yes $10 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $14 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $10 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $51 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $10 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants $10 4d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 29¢ $16 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $5 4d
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 31¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $77 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $10 4d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 90¢ $92 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 5d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 29¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 703 history records