Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3208…07a7 crypto 765 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 183d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,078 (+17%) realized +$9,889 · open +$1,189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%406W / 349L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$1,313est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$835
7 days+$2,757
14 days+$4,736
30 days+$5,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$11,689
crypto 2% −$258
other 0% −$63
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +43.3% +29.6% 78% 53% +7.2%
≤30d 129 +26.6% +14.5% 69% 45% +5.6%
≤90d 544 -24.8% -32.0% 37% 28% +4.5%
all 755 +8.6% -1.7% 54% 47% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 47% +5.2%
10% -11.1% 42% -4.8%
15% -19.7% 40% -14.0%
20% -27.6% 38% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$17 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$4,823
Realized+$9,889
Unrealized+$1,189
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses406 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,313
Open positions10
Markets (closed)755 / 765
History coverage183d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 755 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Vasco Esports 28¢ 38¢ $2,061 $2,729 +$668 (+32%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK Academy 22¢ 50¢ $211 $479 +$268 (+127%)
Map Handicap: LDP (-1.5) vs Vasco Esports (+1.5) Vasco Esports 39¢ 46¢ $391 $456 +$65 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner Vasco Esports 32¢ 43¢ $333 $454 +$121 (+36%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner Vasco Esports 35¢ 41¢ $210 $243 +$34 (+16%)
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 58¢ 62¢ $173 $184 +$10 (+6%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 46¢ $125 $157 +$32 (+26%)
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Dark Moon (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group B CYBERSHOKE Prospects 68¢ 88¢ $68 $87 +$19 (+29%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 21¢ 16¢ $42 $33 −$9 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 24 $313 +$124 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $19 +$31 +158%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Cl Jun 24 $1,114 +$35 +3%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $121 +$14 +11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $1,370 +$68 +5%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $124 +$11 +9%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $277 +$38 +14%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 23 $297 +$33 +11%
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $24 +$40 +165%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J Jun 23 $81 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $401 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $565 +$16 +3%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 23 $1,735 +$80 +5%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,189 +$324 +27%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $129 +$9 +7%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $42 +$58 +138%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $1 +$6 +539%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 22 $20 −$5 -24%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $28 +$21 +75%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $26 +$74 +285%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$19 +92%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $39 +$111 +285%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $31 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: WROTBERRY vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $36 +$34 +96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $27 +$53 +197%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$42 +206%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $25 +$35 +138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$15 +67%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $769 +$375 +49%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $34 +$26 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl Jun 19 $3 +$3 +100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $87 +$63 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $87 +$63 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $2,141 +$1,089 +51%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $20 +$20 +96%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $15 +$32 +206%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Jun 18 $153 +$17 +11%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $22 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $491 +$10 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $268 +$53 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $2 0m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $2 0m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $3 1m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 32¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 32¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 32¢ $13 2m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 32¢ $13 2m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 33¢ $33 3m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 33¢ $21 3m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 33¢ $3 3m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 33¢ $10 3m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 35¢ $5 3m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 35¢ $4 4m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 35¢ $167 6m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $4 8m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $4 9m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $20 10m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $13 10m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 43¢ $164 36m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 43¢ $51 44m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $6 51m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 42¢ $260 51m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $33 52m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $5 55m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 39¢ $47 56m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 39¢ $5 56m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 39¢ $61 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,822.87 · official $4,822.87 (match) · 3500 history records