Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x3208…4a5e sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,495 (-20%) realized −$1,490 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$801
7 days−$801
14 days−$801
30 days−$801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,238
other 5% +$187
world 2% +$14
politics 2% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.9% -34.8% 43% 43% -27.5%
≤30d 7 -27.9% -34.8% 43% 43% -27.5%
≤90d 10 -7.8% -16.6% 60% 50% -21.3%
all 16 -33.5% -39.8% 44% 38% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 38% -46.9%
10% -45.6% 31% -52.0%
15% -50.8% 25% -56.6%
20% -55.6% 12% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$456 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$1,490
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage132d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Under $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes $3 $9 +$6 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,217 −$701 -58%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $402 −$392 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $346 −$340 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $389 +$187 +48%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,317 +$462 +35%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $204 +$162 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $181 −$178 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 07 $186 +$14 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $144 +$30 +21%
Knicks vs. Hornets Apr 01 $186 +$164 +89%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 09 $756 −$756 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $870 −$870 -100%
Spurs vs. 76ers Mar 03 $216 −$216 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 03 $210 +$90 +43%
Lakers vs. Warriors Feb 28 $152 −$152 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $205 29m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $516 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $300 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $204 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $306 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $305 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over $49 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $41 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $51 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $55 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $205 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $62 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $36 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $34 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $268 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $261 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.29 · official $198.29 (match) · 70 history records