Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3207…1d73 other 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 217L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 20% −$16
politics 8% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 2% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage129d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $215 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $664 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $586 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $296 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $583 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $597 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $421 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $322 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $141 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $345 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $554 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $778 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $224 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $273 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $161 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 8m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $51 4h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 6h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 8h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 14h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 16h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 16h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $12 17h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 19h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 19h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 21h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 27h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 28h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 29h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 36h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 37h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 40h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 43h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 45h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 46h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.54 · official $50.54 (match) · 1337 history records