Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3204…b1db crypto 762 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23,860 (-13%) realized −$23,860 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%614W / 148L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day136.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 16% -4.2%
≤30d 762 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 21% -9.7%
≤90d 762 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 21% -9.7%
all 762 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 21% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 21% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 14% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 12% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$156 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23,860
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses614 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)762 / 762
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day136.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 762 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$17 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$17 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$23 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$17 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$71 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$16 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$18 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$28 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $15 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $18 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $14 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $12 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $14 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $27 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records