Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31ff…45f5 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$108 (-15%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$203
sports 24% +$54
other 8% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 67% +21.9%
≤30d 3 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 67% +21.9%
≤90d 14 -45.8% -51.0% 36% 36% -26.2%
all 14 -45.8% -51.0% 36% 36% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.0% 36% -26.2%
10% -55.7% 29% -33.2%
15% -59.9% 29% -39.7%
20% -63.9% 14% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage35d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 66¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 +$32 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $103 +$40 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 11 $123 −$119 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 11 $93 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 11 $118 +$45 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $49 +$32 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $67 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $35 9h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 66¢ $18 9h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 70¢ $143 10h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $25 10h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $13 10h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $66 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $123 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $22 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $83 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $72 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $118 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $25 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 34d
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.54 · official $15.54 (match) · 29 history records