Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31ff…0d37 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,306 (+1%) realized +$1,418 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 92L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$900per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,127
7 days+$1,249
14 days+$1,249
30 days+$1,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,742
politics 33% +$5,201
other 7% −$2,476
economics 1% +$67
world 0% +$122
culture 0% −$12
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +74.5% +57.9% 100% 100% +21.5%
≤30d 4 +74.5% +57.9% 100% 100% +21.5%
≤90d 4 +74.5% +57.9% 100% 100% +21.5%
all 155 -23.0% -30.4% 41% 35% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 35% -8.3%
10% -37.0% 27% -17.1%
15% -43.1% 23% -25.1%
20% -48.7% 15% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$239 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$1,418
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 159
History coverage412d
Avg bet$900
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 59¢ 37¢ $175 $110 −$65 (-37%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 54¢ 12¢ $56 $12 −$44 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 26 $276 +$259 +94%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $270 +$158 +58%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $2,994 +$710 +24%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jun 21 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 09 $1,854 +$1,453 +78%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1,800 −$1,146 -64%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $2,189 −$476 -22%
Will Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) be part of the next Government of Dec 04 $4,200 +$222 +5%
Will László Krasznahorkai win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature? Oct 09 $40 +$42 +106%
Will Gerald Murnane win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature? Oct 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Mircea Cărtărescu win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature? Oct 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote in the Czech election Oct 06 $60 +$61 +101%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 05 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Oct 05 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Solana reach $240 in October? Oct 05 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in October? Oct 05 $1,653 +$189 +11%
Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 05 $11 −$11 -99%
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election? Oct 05 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election Oct 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will STAČILO! get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Pirates wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election? Oct 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October? Oct 02 $140 +$14 +10%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 1? Oct 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 30? Sep 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on September 30? Sep 30 $21 −$21 -99%
Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote? Sep 29 $278 −$96 -35%
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Sep 28 $5,350 +$467 +9%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in September? Sep 26 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 26 $166 −$164 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 26 $200 −$195 -97%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 2 Sep 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in September? Sep 19 $3,900 +$402 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $1,084 +$162 +15%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in September? Sep 12 $300 +$66 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September? Sep 12 $4,437 +$647 +15%
Will Solana reach $215 in September? Sep 08 $1,635 +$202 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,500 on September 4 at 12PM ET? Sep 04 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on September 4 at Sep 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on September 3? Sep 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 2? Sep 02 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down on August 31? Sep 01 $10 +$8 +82%
Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August? Sep 01 $26 +$9 +35%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in August? Aug 24 $7,595 −$2,848 -38%
Will Solana reach $210 in August? Aug 24 $807 +$339 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 13¢ $16 3m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 4m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 10m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 50m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 54¢ $57 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY 23¢ $11 12h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 58¢ $59 4d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 53¢ $53 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1,990 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $1,003 4d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 50¢ $223 4d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 63¢ $211 4d
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $100 162d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 78¢ $154 200d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 17¢ $500 200d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 19¢ $654 200d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,000 200d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 200d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,300 200d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 47¢ $700 200d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 4¢ $92 200d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 26¢ $97 234d
Will Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) be part of the next Government of SELL No 97¢ $97 234d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 26¢ $99 234d
Will Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) be part of the next Government of SELL No 98¢ $98 234d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 25¢ $298 234d
Will Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) be part of the next Government of SELL No 99¢ $99 234d
Will Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) be part of the next Government of SELL No 100¢ $100 234d
Will Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) be part of the next Government of SELL No 100¢ $100 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.20 · official $140.20 (match) · 506 history records