Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
31 0x31fd…e144 sports 617 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$846 (-1%) realized −$832 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%292W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$992est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$737
7 days+$1,059
14 days+$1,041
30 days+$1,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,542
other 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 43% -2.4%
≤30d 244 -1.9% -11.3% 49% 43% -6.0%
≤90d 616 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 43% -11.7%
all 616 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -11.7%
10% -21.4% 39% -20.1%
15% -29.0% 34% -27.8%
20% -35.9% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$72 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$832
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses292 / 324
Est. fees paid−$992
Open positions1
Markets (closed)616 / 617
History coverage70d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Spirit Academy 60¢ 48¢ $74 $60 −$14 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $330 +$96 +29%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $213 +$109 +51%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $408 +$190 +46%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $763 −$202 -26%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $93 +$87 +93%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $440 −$436 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $604 +$216 +36%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $78 −$7 -9%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $305 +$251 +82%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $84 −$82 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $220 +$110 +50%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $501 +$371 +74%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $159 +$205 +129%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $24 +$2 +7%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $182 +$41 +23%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $92 −$91 -99%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $147 −$144 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $141 +$104 +73%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $120 −$117 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $32 −$29 -90%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $48 +$283 +584%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $109 −$17 -15%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $67 +$26 +39%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$17 -85%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $70 −$68 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $192 +$53 +27%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $71 +$168 +238%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $81 −$79 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 +$130 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$161 +196%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$24 -82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $406 −$402 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $85 −$26 -31%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$74 +114%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $343 −$73 -21%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $93 +$135 +146%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $72 +$201 +280%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $168 −$166 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $56 −$56 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $242 +$62 +26%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $78 −$76 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $136 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $44 +$59 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 60¢ $75 1h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $250 1h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 68¢ $408 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 72¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 65¢ $213 2h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 77¢ $330 2h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 54¢ $308 3h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 51¢ $93 3h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 74¢ $213 5h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 68¢ $227 5h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 69¢ $228 5h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 70¢ $231 5h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 68¢ $227 5h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 72¢ $290 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $200 6h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 74¢ $313 6h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 49¢ $84 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 53¢ $69 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 54¢ $129 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 55¢ $108 8h
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Khachanov 66¢ $220 9h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 100¢ $200 9h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 76¢ $1 9h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 54¢ $257 10h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 60¢ $243 10h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 54¢ $78 10h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 11¢ $26 25h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 10¢ $24 25h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $224 26h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 43¢ $159 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.02 · official $60.02 (match) · 1352 history records