trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 86¢ | 84¢ | $33 | $32 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $33 | +$1 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 01 | $1 | +$3 | +208% |
| Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? | May 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | May 20 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mark Carney lose his seat? | Apr 28 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 28 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | Apr 28 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Apr 27 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 26 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 30 | $15 | −$9 | -59% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 27 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Ripple above $2.70 on February 28? | Mar 20 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? | Feb 27 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 67% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 67% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +52.9% | +38.3% | 75% | 25% | -6.2% |
| all | 18 | +3.3% | -6.6% | 61% | 6% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.6% | 6% | -12.9% |
| 10% | -15.5% | 6% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -23.7% | 6% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -31.1% | 6% | -35.9% |