Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31f2…ccb8
crypto · 1093 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$13 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses310 / 634
Open positions1
Markets (closed)944 / 1093
History coverage107d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 944 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$39
14 days−$26
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 67¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -25%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$10
politics 1% +$2
other 1% −$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 59% -7.0%
≤30d 783 -34.1% -40.4% 30% 26% -7.1%
≤90d 783 -34.1% -40.4% 30% 26% -7.1%
all 944 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 29% -9.2%
10% -42.9% 25% -17.8%
15% -48.4% 21% -25.8%
20% -53.4% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $2.14 (match) · 2118 history records