Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31f2…c98a crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-4%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$41
crypto 32% +$1
world 27% $0
other 8% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -3.1% -12.4% 65% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -13.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -21.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -29.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage145d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $174 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 7? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 9? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 7? Mar 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 6? Mar 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $32 −$4 -11%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Feb 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $35 −$4 -10%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $39 −$4 -10%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 31 $27 −$4 -14%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $88 −$8 -9%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $25 −$4 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $174 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $124 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $124 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $15 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 27? BUY No 99¢ $10 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $14 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 92d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 99d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records