trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 33% | 33% | -5.4% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -13.9% | -22.1% | 50% | 17% | -7.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 38% | 12% | -9.5% |
| all | 20 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 55% | 15% | +0.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 15% | +0.4% |
| 10% | -21.0% | 10% | -9.2% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 10% | -18.0% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 5% | -26.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 23 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $17 | +$2 | +14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $27 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $13 | −$1 | -9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $31 | −$3 | -10% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 23 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 17 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? | May 14 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 26 | $82 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 22 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Will West Ham win on 2025-02-27? | Mar 21 | $40 | +$31 | +75% |
| Chattanooga vs. UNC Greensboro | Mar 21 | $58 | +$25 | +43% |
| Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? | Feb 27 | $97 | +$2 | +2% |