Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31e9…c6a2 weather 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% +$4
other 22% −$4
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 33% -30.9%
≤30d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 38% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 38% 38% -13.5%
all 16 +5.2% -4.8% 38% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 38% -13.5%
10% -13.9% 38% -21.8%
15% -22.2% 38% -29.3%
20% -29.8% 38% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +207%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 11d
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes $1 11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming $0 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 14¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records