Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31e7…fe2a sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$401 (+17%) realized +$327 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 35L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$419
other 11% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +22.5% +10.8% 51% 51% +3.6%
≤30d 71 +22.5% +10.8% 51% 51% +3.6%
≤90d 71 +22.5% +10.8% 51% 51% +3.6%
all 71 +22.5% +10.8% 51% 51% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 51% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here +0.2% 51% -6.3%
15% -9.5% 49% -15.4%
20% -18.4% 49% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized+$327
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 35
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions10
Markets (closed)71 / 81
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 100¢ $58 $134 +$76 (+131%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $66 $81 +$15 (+22%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Over 42¢ 100¢ $33 $79 +$46 (+138%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 72¢ $33 $51 +$18 (+54%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 57¢ 84¢ $33 $49 +$16 (+48%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 50¢ 50¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jurij Rodionov 48¢ 39¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 37¢ 16¢ $33 $14 −$19 (-58%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Athletics 37¢ 98¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+164%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 8¢ $33 $7 −$26 (-80%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ 3¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $23 +$23 +97%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $67 −$9 -14%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 20 $33 +$30 +90%
ITF Maanshan: Hiroki Moriya vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $6 +$9 +140%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $33 +$27 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 +$10 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 +$24 +73%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $16 +$32 +197%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $38 +$25 +66%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $33 +$23 +70%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $34 +$51 +152%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $67 −$66 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Rudy Quan Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $34 +$38 +114%
Set Handicap: Hardt (-1.5) vs Justo (+1.5) Jun 20 $6 +$8 +124%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $67 +$100 +149%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 +$23 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $67 +$69 +103%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $33 +$28 +83%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 19 $3 +$6 +180%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $20 +$19 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $27 +$61 +228%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Justo vs. Hardt: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 19 $36 +$65 +182%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $52 +$18 +35%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $39 +$63 +163%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 +$6 +188%
Set 2 Winner: Pino vs Estevez Jun 19 $28 +$28 +97%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$89 +291%
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Jun 19 $3 +$6 +206%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 57¢ $33 29m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 52m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 55m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 52¢ $33 55m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $34 57m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 50¢ $33 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 50¢ $23 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 57¢ $33 1h
ITF Maanshan: Hiroki Moriya vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Hiroki Moriya 41¢ $34 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 37¢ $34 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $34 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Athletics 37¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $34 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 42¢ $34 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 41¢ $6 2h
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $4 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $33 2h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $33 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 23¢ $3 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $33 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $32 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 53¢ $33 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $34 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 53¢ $33 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $576.61 · official $576.62 (match) · 142 history records