Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31e4…d170 sports 68 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$163 (+4%) realized +$163 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate57%39W / 29L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$70
other 12% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 22% -8.5%
≤30d 68 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 22% -8.5%
≤90d 68 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 22% -8.5%
all 68 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 22% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 22% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 9% -17.3%
15% -25.9% 6% -25.2%
20% -33.1% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses39 / 29
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 14 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $339 −$71 -21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $246 +$80 +33%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $119 +$3 +3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $148 −$14 -9%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $7 −$1 -9%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $126 −$9 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $181 +$27 +15%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $46 −$1 -1%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $52 +$8 +16%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $31 +$7 +22%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $63 +$3 +4%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $179 +$4 +2%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $106 −$1 -1%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $81 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $41 −$12 -29%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $21 +$2 +12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $55 +$2 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $41 +$2 +4%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $78 −$1 -1%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $41 −$2 -5%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $45 +$8 +18%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $40 −$4 -9%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $41 +$4 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $40 +$5 +12%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $70 −$35 -50%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $49 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $23 +$1 +4%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $10 +$8 +81%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $23 −$1 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42 +$5 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $60 −$2 -4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $102 −$26 -25%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $51 +$41 +80%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $103 −$18 -18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $268 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $339 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $149 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 43¢ $132 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 48¢ $159 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 42¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 38¢ $13 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 29¢ $113 3d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 59¢ $122 3d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 56¢ $119 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 65¢ $10 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 68¢ $11 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Enrico Dalla Valle 68¢ $17 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 66¢ $17 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Harry Wendelken 75¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 73¢ $4 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Marc-Andrea Huesler 44¢ $125 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 47¢ $138 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 26¢ $22 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 25¢ $22 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 45¢ $0 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 44¢ $6 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 47¢ $7 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt SELL Alex Bolt 47¢ $117 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 49¢ $126 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 87¢ $99 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 86¢ $54 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records