Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31e1…5bd3 crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$562 (+12%) realized +$646 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$268
7 days+$268
14 days+$234
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$417
sports 24% +$976
other 11% −$218
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% +69.8%
≤30d 9 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 22% +41.5%
≤90d 75 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 37% +0.2%
all 75 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 37% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 37% +0.2%
10% -26.7% 35% -9.4%
15% -33.8% 32% -18.1%
20% -40.3% 32% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$40 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$646
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage82d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $296 +$276 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$4 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$25 -79%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $13 +$18 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 11 $28 +$28 +100%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $245 +$331 +135%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $60 +$185 +308%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $288 −$285 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 11 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$35 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $115 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 11 $90 −$87 -97%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $250 +$296 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 10 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 10 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 10 $60 −$29 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 10 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$14 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 10 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 10 $25 +$29 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 10 $40 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $30 +$44 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $35 −$33 -94%
West Ham United FC leading at halftime? Apr 10 $112 +$151 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 10 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 10 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 10 $60 +$49 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 10 $31 +$30 +97%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 10 $94 −$63 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 09 $189 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $156 +$128 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 09 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 09 $15 +$16 +106%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $296 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 7h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $26 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $30 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.89 · official $2.89 (match) · 187 history records