Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31df…cd23 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$227
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.1% -16.9% 42% 33% -26.2%
≤30d 24 -8.1% -16.9% 42% 33% -26.2%
≤90d 24 -8.1% -16.9% 42% 33% -26.2%
all 24 -8.1% -16.9% 42% 33% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 33% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 17% -33.2%
15% -32.1% 12% -39.7%
20% -38.8% 8% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$164 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $153 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $121 +$15 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records