Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31de…9572 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,846 (-1%) realized −$1,846 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$977per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$24
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$111
politics 33% +$4
sports 13% −$1,779
economics 5% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -4.3% -13.4% 15% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 68 -4.2% -13.4% 7% 3% -11.0%
all 138 -4.4% -13.5% 19% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 9% -10.8%
10% -21.8% 9% -19.3%
15% -29.3% 9% -27.1%
20% -36.3% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,352) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$1,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage160d
Avg bet$977
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $315 $315 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $330 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,998 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,257 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,374 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,074 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $892 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,550 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $710 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $44 +$38 +86%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,209 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,144 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 07 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4,337 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,694 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,159 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,866 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,257 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $407 30m
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $408 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $330 3h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $330 4h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 44h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 46h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $351 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $352 4d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $487 5d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $498 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $499 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $570 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $571 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $595 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $596 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $610 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $611 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $503 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $504 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $315 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $937 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $939 12d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $571 12d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $572 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,086 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.13 · official $315.13 (match) · 430 history records