Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31de…03ff weather 856 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,440 (+2%) realized +$3,440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%814W / 42L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$460
14 days+$1,119
30 days+$1,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,323
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 8% -8.0%
≤30d 321 +8.2% -2.1% 96% 10% -7.7%
≤90d 855 +8.2% -2.1% 95% 8% -8.2%
all 856 +8.2% -2.1% 95% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 8% -8.2%
10% -11.4% 5% -17.0%
15% -20.0% 5% -25.0%
20% -27.8% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.34 per $1 lost it wins $13.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses814 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)856 / 856
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$257
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 856 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $544 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 19 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2,395 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $203 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $282 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$24 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,358 +$40 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $156 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $130 +$29 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $347 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $792 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $408 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$80 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $1,198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $379 +$31 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $127 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $229 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $285 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $285 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $144 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $81 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $227 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $148 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $392 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $346 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $39 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $396 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2,398 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records