Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31dd…3c7a other 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,472 (+7%) realized +$4,672 · open −$200
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%65W / 112L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$455est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$525
7 days+$337
14 days+$67
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$752
other 43% +$4,293
finance 3% −$281
crypto 2% −$601
world 2% −$208
politics 0% +$93
weather 0% −$26
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 40% +14.8%
≤30d 18 -21.6% -29.1% 39% 33% -20.5%
≤90d 82 -20.6% -28.1% 35% 24% -17.7%
all 177 -14.4% -22.5% 37% 31% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 31% -2.4%
10% -29.9% 29% -11.7%
15% -36.7% 26% -20.3%
20% -42.9% 24% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$179 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4,672
Unrealized−$200
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses65 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$455
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage244d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ $201 $2 −$200 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $348 +$537 +154%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $359 −$12 -3%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $235 +$121 +52%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$73 +145%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $263 −$10 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $200 +$10 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $388 +$126 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $174 −$120 -69%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $128 +$240 +188%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $616 −$605 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $150 +$55 +37%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$114 +112%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 26 $2,225 −$1,150 -52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $308 +$954 +310%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 19 $360 −$30 -8%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $450 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $1,833 +$18 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,935 +$520 +27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 19? May 19 $597 −$328 -55%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $144 −$15 -10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $64 −$62 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $5,429 −$556 -10%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $103 −$101 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $29 −$13 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 17 $20 −$5 -24%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $85 −$83 -97%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 17 $61 −$26 -43%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $328 −$325 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $112 +$220 +196%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $202 −$30 -15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $915 −$45 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $232 −$228 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $122 −$120 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $894 −$8 -1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $901 −$17 -2%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $2,154 +$173 +8%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $205 +$161 +79%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $9 +$7 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $2 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $885 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 38¢ $348 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 69¢ $347 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $359 8h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $357 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 4d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $112 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY 17¢ $174 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $21 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $154 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $53 15d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $123 15d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $50 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $10 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 93¢ $388 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 60¢ $252 18d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 95¢ $200 19d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 38¢ $102 20d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Tom Nolan 99¢ $337 20d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tom Nolan 88¢ $301 20d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Farés Ziam 11¢ $12 20d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 26¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.89 · official $1.89 (match) · 925 history records