Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31db…c25f sports 932 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,405 (-4%) realized −$4,387 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%569W / 361L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$669est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$475
7 days−$475
14 days−$647
30 days−$665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$3,808
crypto 17% −$1,574
other 3% +$68
politics 0% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 50% -41.4%
≤30d 219 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 57% -11.4%
≤90d 667 -14.6% -22.8% 54% 50% -19.4%
all 930 -6.0% -15.0% 61% 54% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 54% -14.0%
10% -23.1% 43% -22.2%
15% -30.5% 29% -29.7%
20% -37.4% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$90 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$4,387
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses569 / 361
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$669
Open positions2
Markets (closed)930 / 932
History coverage180d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 930 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 69¢ 68¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 28¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $245 +$67 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$57 +61%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $329 −$325 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $208 +$51 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $45 +$19 +41%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$4 +15%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $47 −$5 -10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $28 +$11 +37%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $21 +$7 +35%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $101 −$67 -66%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 05 $70 −$61 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $65 +$3 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $51 +$13 +26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $100 +$34 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $163 +$28 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$3 +13%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 02 $37 +$20 +54%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $29 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 02 $17 +$11 +64%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $89 +$12 +13%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $54 +$35 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $113 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $56 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $25 −$16 -63%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $30 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $25 −$21 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $60 +$6 +9%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $33 +$30 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $202 11m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $312 12m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $245 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $245 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $14 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $153 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $329 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $202 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $68 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.68 · official $195.68 (match) · 2611 history records