Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31db…e04d
weather · 933 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$130 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$136
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses292 / 555
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions86
Markets (closed)847 / 933
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 86 History 847 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$60
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 94¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+193%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 88¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+168%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? Google 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 44¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 34¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 47¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +144%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +195%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 +$3 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -60%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +330%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% −$69
sports 10% −$53
other 6% −$3
crypto 1% −$5
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 40m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S SELL No 73¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 +6.6% -3.6% 37% 35% -12.8%
≤30d 741 -5.1% -14.2% 32% 30% -16.6%
≤90d 847 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 30% -17.2%
all 847 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 30% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 30% -17.2%
10% -23.4% 29% -25.1%
15% -30.8% 27% -32.3%
20% -37.6% 26% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.03 · official $135.96 (match) · 2138 history records