Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d9…e73d sports 608 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%312W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$45
14 days−$11
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$9
other 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -25.5% -32.6% 45% 45% -26.5%
≤30d 274 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 53% -6.1%
≤90d 580 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 48% -10.9%
all 605 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 50% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 50% -9.9%
10% -28.0% 45% -18.5%
15% -34.9% 38% -26.4%
20% -41.3% 27% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses312 / 293
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)605 / 608
History coverage192d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 44¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$4 -60%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 +$7 +63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$7 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$7 -37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $11 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 48¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 39¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 87¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 27¢ $3 11h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 62¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $1 12h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 36¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $7 12h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 50¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $6 14h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 64¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $3 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $6 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 77¢ $4 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 10¢ $0 39h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 83¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 20¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 40¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.08 · official $12.08 (match) · 1372 history records