Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d7…618c politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 505d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$3
sports 9% $0
weather 8% −$9
crypto 7% $0
finance 3% +$16
economics 3% −$1
world 3% $0
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 40% -2.2%
≤30d 10 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 40% -3.4%
≤90d 10 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 40% -3.4%
all 35 -5.3% -14.3% 20% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 11% -9.3%
10% -22.5% 11% -18.0%
15% -30.0% 11% -25.9%
20% -36.9% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

505d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage505d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 12 $27 +$16 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 +$22 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? Jun 01 $19 +$9 +47%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $12 +$19 +165%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $193 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 30 $23 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on August 27? Aug 25 $14 $0 -3%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Aug 23 $13 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $27 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? Aug 22 $26 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 18 $23 $0 -2%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 12 $4 $0 -4%
US recession in 2025? Apr 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Mar 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 31 $4 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 30 $8 $0 -3%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 -2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jan 27 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $26 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? BUY No 67¢ $19 18d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 49¢ $7 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $12 23d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 25d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 37¢ $12 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $193 162d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $193 162d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $199 162d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $199 162d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $189 162d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $189 162d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 72¢ $12 290d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 73¢ $12 290d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 294d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 294d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on August 27? SELL No 73¢ $14 295d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on August 27? BUY No 75¢ $14 295d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL No 60¢ $13 297d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY No 62¢ $13 297d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 74¢ $27 298d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 75¢ $27 298d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? SELL No 72¢ $27 298d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? BUY No 71¢ $26 299d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 62¢ $22 302d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.32 · official $4.32 (match) · 75 history records