Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d5…5d26 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-9%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$61
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$42
other 27% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -60.8% -64.5% 25% 25% -26.4%
≤30d 14 -66.4% -69.6% 21% 21% -28.5%
≤90d 14 -66.4% -69.6% 21% 21% -28.5%
all 14 -66.4% -69.6% 21% 21% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.6% 21% -28.5%
10% -72.5% 7% -35.3%
15% -75.2% 7% -41.6%
20% -77.6% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $63 $43 −$20 (-31%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $42 +$19 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $87 +$42 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $53 +$6 +11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $65 +$9 +14%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $26 −$23 -88%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $87 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $53 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $7 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $47 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $12 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $53 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 90¢ $45 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $19 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $41 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $6 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $23 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.53 · official $84.53 (match) · 39 history records