Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d5…75e0 other 8 markets active 7d ago coverage 15d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-10%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$31
sports 49% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.5% -37.1% 25% 12% -38.9%
≤30d 8 -30.5% -37.1% 25% 12% -38.9%
≤90d 8 -30.5% -37.1% 25% 12% -38.9%
all 8 -30.5% -37.1% 25% 12% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 12% -38.9%
10% -43.1% 12% -44.7%
15% -48.6% 12% -50.1%
20% -53.7% 0% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
23.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$44 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $151 +$4 +3%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 10 $262 −$220 -84%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 10 $152 −$10 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $254 −$24 -9%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $230 −$5 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 21¢ $16 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 60¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 60¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 61¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 61¢ $4 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 88¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 89¢ $11 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 58¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 91¢ $11 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 55¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 55¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $6 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 49¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.48 · official $277.48 (match) · 3500 history records